After more than 12,000 days, an inadvertent study on arctic vegetation changes is finally complete.  

In the beginning, Trent Biology professor Dr. James Schaefer only set out to track these samples over a few years. However, after 30, he got the chance to revisit his original samples, stumbling upon compelling discoveries about the long-term effects of climate change on vegetation. 

Back in the early 1990s, Professor Schaefer set up 80 plots measuring the area's vegetation and snow cover, to better understand the diet of muskoxen, herbivores that feed on plants, around Ekalluktok, Nunavut.  Prof. Schaefer’s original study lasted until 1993, and as he wrapped up, he happened to ask the regional biologist if he could keep his plots up on the property. To his surprise, she agreed, and this question unknowingly marked the start of what would become a 30 year long study.  

Nearly three decades later, after remembering that his plots were still there, Prof. Schaefer set out to find them and perform an in depth study to document the changes. With crucial help from the Canadian High Arctic Research Station at Cambridge Bay in coordinating field logistics and data collection, Prof. Schaefer was able to pinpoint the exact location of his original plots, uncovering some fascinating discoveries on tundra vegetation and snow cover on a rare, long-term scale.“I thought if I can find those plots again, I could have an immediate 30-year study,” said Prof. Schaefer. Thanks to his memory, maps, and metal detectors, Prof. Schaefer was able to locate 78 out of the 80 plots. “This work was done back in the pre-GPS days.” 

In three subsequent return trips in 2019, 2022, and 2023, Prof. Schaefer revisited the same sites, enhancing his observations by mapping their locations with GPS. By comparing their data, he successfully discerned changes in the abundance and types of plants over a 30-year period. “The beauty of this was that I could compare the data as if I had done two different surveys,” he said, grateful that the regional biologist let him leave the stakes and plots in place. 

One measured change includes the increase in grasses and sedges. Another is the significant die back of a common shrub known as mountain avens. “This is quite a stunning finding as it’s a major food for caribou,” said Prof. Schaefer. 

While the overall ecological implications of these findings are not clear, Prof. Schaefer says there’s no doubt that temperature and precipitation changes in the Arctic are affecting vegetation.  

He's encouraging the Canadian High Arctic Research Station to use these plots for future monitoring. “We need to have those long-term studies in ecology, but they shouldn’t be happenstance,” he said.  

Prof. Shaefer has archived his data with Borealis, a research data repository, of which Trent University is a participating organization.   

Though incidental, this study serves as strong, rare evidence of increasingly significant long-term climate change effects on vegetation, particularly in Arctic regions, and showcases the value in long-term study approaches for researchers of tomorrow.